September 2022 – March 2025

This project aims to enhance the resilience of health infrastructure in conflict-affected areas by moving beyond traditional risk analysis. The focus is on maintaining performance and improving recovery after disruptions. The project will operationalize resilience at the Rafik Hariri University Hospital in Beirut by integrating its various system components—building services, structures, and socio-technical aspects. A rapid resilience assessment will measure adaptive capacity, followed by system response modeling using agent-based approaches. Finally, a resilience monitoring framework will be developed, which can be adapted for broader use across ICRC-managed facilities, facilitating better communication and decision-making among stakeholders.

ETH PI: Prof. Guillaume Habert (Sustainable Construction)

ICRC: Pavlos Tamvakis (Head of Project Management/ ICRC Water & Habitat Unit), Alexander Humbert (Construction Project Manager/ ICRC Water & Habitat Unit), Antoine Hess (Senior Partnership Manager, ICRC-RHUH, ICRC Beirut delegation)

Photo: ICRC: Rafik Hariri University Hospital in Beirut

Non-scientific communication 

  • The work has been presented at the ICRC Healthcare in Danger regional MENA forum by Dr. Celentano, facilitated by Jessica Ramirez Mendoza (ICRC), session 4
  • Internal presentation at the Water and Habitat Project Management cell, ICRC_HQ (online), with follow up scheduled for autumn24
  • Internal presentation at strategic stakeholders within the ICRC Health Unit in HQ (e.g.: Digital Health, focal point for MCI and emergency preparedeness)
  • 1:1 presentation to WHO Techné (brief with interest for follow up)
  • 1:1 presentation to PHEOC Public Health Emergency Operation Center in Lebanon at RHUH (brief with interest for alignment)

Scientific communication

  • Rossella Marmo, Bryan T. Adey, Giulia Celentano, Stress testing hospitals using service measures and resilience indicators, International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, Volume 123, 2025, 105492, ISSN 2212-4209, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105492
  • Rossella Marmo, Bryan T. Adey. Indicator Based Framework To Quantify Hospital Resilience. In: 34th European Safety and Reliability Conference (ESREL 2024), Cracow, Poland, June 23-27, 2024, https://doi.org/10.3929/ethz-b-000716793
  • Giulia Celentano, Rossella Marmo, Nikola Blagojevic, Claudia Truppa, Antoine Hess, Pavlos Tamvakis, David Kostenwein, Josè Ignacio Blasco Millan, Guillaume Habert. Decoding humanitarian programs complexity via systems thinking unveiling critical infrastructure-to-system causal loops. In: International Conference on Sustainable Built Environment 2025, Zurich (in press)
  • Giulia Celentano, Claudia Truppa, Rossella Marmo, Antoine Hess, Pavlos Tamvakis (tbc), Guillaume Habert. Decisions that matter: a methodology to design evidence-informed decision-making support tools in humanitarian programs. Abstract accepted for paper submission at: Building and Cities, special edit on Complexity of Reconstruction programs, 2025 (in print 2026)

 

Authorship: ETH Zurich (Giulia Celentano). Illustrations: Alberto Wolfango Amedeo D’Asaro. Motion graphic: Silvio Mancini. Voice sound design: Davide Berri.

ICRC project lead Pavlos Tamvakis, ETH PI Prof. Guillaume Habert, project coordinator Dr. Giulia Celentano and Strategic Advisor Prof. Yiannis Xenedis after a progress meeting in the ICRC Headquarters in Geneva, February 2023 

Workshop session in Rafik Harir University Hospital at the project start. The workshop included the ICRC sponsor from HW Pavlos Tamvakis (on the left, standing), the ETH project team, ICRC local team and hospital staff. Beirut, November 2022. Photo by: Jennifer Duyne Barenstein

ETH BRHI team hospital visit in Tripoli Governamental Hospital, led by Mahmoud Al Wais, ICRC Hospital Project Manager – TGH (in the center. On his right side: Dr. Nikola Blagojevic, on his left: Dr. Giulia Celentano, ETH Zurich), April 2024 Photo by: TGH medical staff

V-P-SS-E-01321. Country/Region : SOUTH SUDAN Caption: Wau. Teaching hospital. Photographer: TOVAR, Erika Copyright: ICRC Confidentiality level: public Publication restrictions: publication without restrictionsAI for Forecasting and Demand Planning
Remote Monitoring of Armed Conflicts